Prediction markets turn many individual judgments into a price that changes as evidence changes. That makes them unusually useful to researchers: every forecast is timestamped, measurable, and eventually testable against a real outcome.
This is not a poll or a model forecast. A market price is its own kind of signal, shaped by participants with a reason to update when the evidence changes. It deserves to be studied on its own terms and compared carefully with the real-world outcome.
We think this is one of the most important developments in how information works, and almost nobody is building serious research infrastructure around it. The data is scattered. The tools are primitive. If you want to study how these markets form prices, where they're wrong, and where they're early, you're basically starting from scratch every time.
We connect prediction-market history to the public data that determines each outcome. We are not building another exchange.
The SDK resolves contracts to official sources, fetches historical and live observations, and returns the source and timestamps with every row. You can reuse the same fields in backtests and live monitoring.
Prediction markets are new. The regulation is still being written. And the truth is, not every market that can be created should be. You can create a market on almost anything. That doesn't mean you should. When markets are designed around tragedy or engineered for outrage, they don't prove that prediction markets work. They prove that anything can be gamified. And that makes it harder for the markets that actually matter to be taken seriously.
We chose to focus on outcomes you can verify. Weather. Sports. Economics. Things grounded in public data, not opinion. Not because other questions are uninteresting. Because we think the builders who show up now are deciding what prediction markets become. And we'd rather they become trusted infrastructure than a punchline.
We study these markets ourselves, every day. We build what we need. Increasingly, research is conducted by an AI agent. We built for that.
The foundations of this space are being built right now. We'd rather build them right.
The Mostly Right team